MID MORNING MARKETS 22-2-18

ThE ASX200 is up 16 points in early trade, a good performance in light of the US wobbles. Consumer stocks lead. Results dominate. NEC, WEB, FLT the winners, BKL and BAL under pressure. CAPEX data later today. #ausbiz

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  • Private CAPEX data
  • Dividends – AGL Energy (AGL) 54.0c, Aust. United Investment (AUL) 16.0c, Diversified United Investment (DUI) 6.5c, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) 86.0c, Korvest (KOV) 5.0c, Woodside Petroleum (WPL) 62.3c
  • Chinese markets back today.

TONIGHT

  • UK – GDP (2nd estimate) and business investment
  • US Leading indicators
  • Fed speak – Minneapolis Fed President (alternate voter) Neel Kashkari, Governor Randal Quarles, New York Fed President (permanent FOMC voter) William Dudley, Atlanta Fed President (FOMC voter) Raphael Bostic; Dallas Fed President (alternate voter) Robert Kaplan.

COMPANY NEWS

  • Bellamy’s (BAL) – Normalised NPAT +70% to $22.4m. Revenue up 43.7% to $170m, Camperdown revenue was $4.9m, Upgraded FY18 revenue growth to 30-35% (from 15-20%) and FY18 EBITDA margin to 20-23%(from 17-20%) as per our 15 January 2018 announcement (excluding Camperdown). FY18 EBITDA margin has also been upgraded to 20-23%. Expecting 1H18 revenue to be higher than 2H due to the seasonality impact of Chinese online platform events, higher winter consumption in China and Chinese New Year; as well as “Chinese label” sales of $18m occurring in 1H18 (2H18 $nil) due to previously announced delays in Bellamy’s CFDA registration. The company acknowledged “the risk of a dynamic and highly regulated market”.
  • Webjet (WEB) – Underlying NPAT -38%, Statutory NPAT down 48%. EBITDA down 10%. Revenue (ecluding revenue as principal) up 11%. Excluding the costs associated with the JacTravel acquisition, NPAT for continuing operations was up 25%, and EBITDA up 63%. Dividend 8c. Update on January 2018 trading: B2C Webjet bookings up 10% vs pcp, Online Republic bookings up 10% vs pcp; bookings growth across all 3 divisions; B2B Bookings up 280% (100% excluding JacTravel), 2H trading is expected to be stronger and is on track for FY18 EBITDA to be more than $80m and TTV of more than $3bn.

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  • Michael Hill International (MHJ) – NPAT of $8.7m (Consensus est $27.1m, Citi est $28.5m). EBIT down 12.6% to $15.1m. Revenue up 4.5%. Group same store sales (sss) up 0.3%. Dividend 2.5c. Earnings fell due to deteriorating business conditions in the US, the Emma & Roe business and a challenging November trading period.
  • Catapult (CAT) – Net loss of $14.1, worse than the $5.3 loss in 1H17. Revenue up 31%. Confirms FY18 revenue guidance of $76m-$81m and expected to deliver positive underlying EBITDA.
  • Flight Centre (FLT) – Underlying net profit up 23.2% to $139.4 (Consensus est $91.9m, Citi est $88m) and above the targeted range. Upgraded full-year guidance

OVERNIGHTMMM2

SPI FUTURES +2

US EQUITIES – S&P500 -15 (-0.55%), Dow Jones -167 (-0.67%). Nasdaq -16 (-0.22%)

Main themes –

  • Big range range for the Dow, including being up as much as 303 points, with a sell-off following the FOMC meeting minutes.
  • January FOMC Minutes suggest FOMC comfortable remaining on the rate hike path – see below

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mostly higher. STOXX +0.16%, UK FTSE -0.01%, German Dax -0.14% the exception, French CAC +0.23%.

CURRENCIES

  • The US dollar rallied again, up 0.38% at 90.06.
  • The Aussie dollar is almost a percent lower at US78.84c.

BONDS – 2-yr: +4 bps to 2.26%, 5-yr: +3 bps to 2.68%, 10-yr: +5 bps to 2.94%, 30-yr: +6 bps to 3.22%

COMMODITIES

  • WTI oil was down US11c at US$61.68.
  • Gold futures fell after initially jumping after the FOMC meeting minutes, ending down 0.46% to US$1,325.10
  • Iron ore unchanged at $78.30. (Chinese holiday)
  • LME metals were mixed – copper +0.41%, aluminium +0.69%, nickel +1.73%

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • FOMC minutes – Almost all FOMC members expect inflation to increase in 2018 while several members see higher upside risks in the near term. This leaves a majority of FOMC members believing that a stronger economic outlook raises the “likelihood of further gradual policy firming.” Several FOMC members expressed concern about a potential emergence of imbalances due to elevated asset values and higher debt utilisation by nonfinancial corporations. The reaction seems interesting since they are very out of date, reflecting conditions on January 30-31. A lot has happened since then. Including CPI and PPI reports, 2-year budget agreement that will increase spending by $420bn, the stock market wobble (down 8% in a week) and Jerome Powell replaced Janet Yellen as the head of the Federal Reserve
  • US Economic data – Weekly MBA Mortgage Index -6.6% (prior -4.1%), January Existing Home Sales 5.38m (consensus 5.62m; prior 5.56m)
  • European data – February Manufacturing PMI 58.5 (expected 59.2; last 59.6) and February Services PMI 56.7 (expected 57.7; last 58.0); Germany Manufacturing PMI 60.3 (expected 60.6; last 61.1) and Services PMI 55.3 (expected 56.9; last 57.3); French Manufacturing PMI 56.1 (expected 58.1; last 58.4) and Services PMI 57.9 (expected 59.1; last 59.2)
  • UK data – Average Earnings Index incl Bonus +2.5%, as expected (last 2.5%); January Claimant Count Change -7,200 (expected 2,300; last 6,200). January Unemployment Rate 4.4% (expected 4.3%; last 4.3%) and January Public Sector Net Borrowing -£11.62bn (expected -£11.5bn; last £280m)

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Mishaps are like knives, that either serve us or cut us, as we grasp them by the blade or the handle.” – James Russell Lowell, American poet born this day in 1819. Died August 12, 1891.

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