MID MORNING MARKETS 9-11-18

The ASX 200 is down 5 points in quiet mid morning trade. US rally stalls on Fed, oil in bear territory (down 20% from high), NAB struggles after going ex, LLC downdate, SOMP today. Big week ahead #ausbiz

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TODAY

  • Economic data – Home Loans
  • Exdividend – CSR 13.0c, Janus Henderson Group (JHG) 50.5c
  • RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
  • Chinese – Inflation Rate, PPI

TONIGHT

  • UK – Balance of Trade, Construction Output, GDP Growth Rate, Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, Business Investment
  • US economic data – PPI, Core PPI, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim, Wholesale Inventories

CORPORATE NEWS

  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA) – PERLS XI Capital Notes Offer to Eligible Perpetual Exchangeable Resaleable Listed Securities (PERLS VI) Holders
  • APA – After the rejection yesterday on the grounds of not being in the national interests, there are reports that the Hong Kong-based CKI will move to secure a deal with an Australian partner and come back with another offer for APA.
  • Navitas (NVT) – Navitas senior management presented to the BGH Consortium yesterday.
  • Lend Lease (LLC) – Has identified further underperformance in the Engineering and Services Business and will take a provision in the order of $350 million after tax for 1H19. The problems predominantly relate to further deterioration in the small number of projects previously identified. This is attributed to a number of issues including lower productivity in the post tunnelling phases of NorthConnex; and excessive wet weather, access issues and remedial work arising from defective design on other projects. “Measures are being undertaken to mitigate the anticipated losses including negotiations with third parties.” LLC is undertaking a review of the business as a result. Taking almost 5 points off the market.

NEXT WEEK

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  • Domestic data – The big issue will be wages data on Wednesday. Expectations are for no change to the previous results, 0.6% for the quarter and 2.1% over the year. Employment data on Thursday is the other big focus. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to rise to 5.3% from 5.0% previously. NAB business confidence on Tuesday and consumer confidence on Wednesday are the other releases.
  • Chinese data includes retail sales and industrial production on Wednesday,
  • UK employment data is Tuesday, inflation is Wednesday, with retail sales on Thursday.
  • European GDP is released on Wednesday, with consensus expectations for a slowdown to 0.2% in the quarter and 1.7% over the year. Inflation is on Friday.
  • The key US data includes CPI on Wednesday, with retail sales on Thursday and industrial production on Friday.

Key dividends

  • Monday – ANZ Bank 80.0c, Macquarie Group (MQG) 215.0c, Orica (ORI) 31.5c
  • Tuesday – Westpac (WMC) 94.0c
  • Thursday – Tilt Renewables (TLT) 1.6c
  • Friday – Kathmandu Holdings (KMD) 10.1c, Washington H. Soul Pat (SOL) 33.0c, Tamawood (TWD) 16.0c, WAM Capital (WAM) 7.8c

OVERNIGHT

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SPI FUTURES -8

US EQUITIES – S&P500 -7 (-0.25%), Dow Jones +11 (+0.04%), Nasdaq -40 (0.53%).

Main themes

  • Fed meeting – FOMC leaves fed funds target range between 2.00% and 2.25%, as expected, and indicated gradual hikes will continue.
  • R. Horton (-8.97%) and other homebuilders fell, after acknowledging housing market slowdown, despite beating earnings estimates

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mixed. STOXX500 +0.19%, UK FTSE +0.33%, German DAX -0.45%, French CAC -0.13%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is 0.7% higher at 96.68.
  • The Aussie dollar has eased to US72.56c.

BONDS – 2-yr: +4 bps to 2.97%, 5-yr: +3 bps to 3.09%, 10-yr: +2 bps to 3.23%, 30-yr: UNCH at 3.43

COMMODITIES

  • WTI crude futures are down US$1.00 or 1.6% at US$60.67. Chinese imports reached a record 9.61mbpd. Oil is down more than 20% since the 4-year highs seen last month. Other news this week has been negative, with US output hitting a record high of 11.6mbpd, the EIA forecasting production will reach 12.1mbpd in 2019, and reports production has been increasing in Saudi Arabia and Russia.
  • Iron Ore – IRESS reports iron ore was up US$1 at US$75.00 a tonne. The CommSec site says China Import (Fines 62% Fe) was up US$1.75 at US$76.25/dry ton. (CFR Tianjin port)
  • LME metals – Mixed. Cu +0.03%, Ni -0.34%, Al ++0.25%.

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – Weekly Initial Claims 214K (consensus 213K; prior 215K) and Continuing Claims (actual 1623K; prior 1631K)
  • Italian budget – The European Commission expects that Italy’s budget deficit will reach 2.9% in 2019, not the 2.4% deficit forecast by the Italian government. EUCO expects that growth in Italy will only reach 1.2% in 2019 compared to government expectations of 1.5%.
  • Indian Central Bank – Reports Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel could offer his resignation at the next policy meeting on November 19 due to an ongoing disagreement with India’s governmen

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