MID MORNING MARKETS 15-11-18

The ASX 200 is up 15 points in mid morning trade after another big night. Brexit gets Cabinet stamp, Oil breaks losing streak. Most sectors ↑, Financials (banks) the big detractor. REA CEO steps down (but really up), GEM trading update, GNC results, Wages data and Fed Gov talking. #ausbiz

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TODAY

  • Economic data – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

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  • Chinese House Price Index

TONIGHT

  • UK – Retail Sales
  • European – Balance of Trade
  • US – Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed, Business Inventories
  • Fed speak – Chairman Jay Powell (today and tomorrow); San Francisco Fed President (FOMC voter) Mary Daly; Vice Chairman for Supervision (FOMC voter) Randal Quarles; Atlanta Fed President (FOMC voter) Raphael Bostic

CORPORATE NEWS

  • Wesfarmers (WES) – Vote on the demerger today
  • Xero (XRO) – Has acquired Instafile, a cloud-based accounts preparation and tax filing solution that connects UK accountants, bookkeepers and small businesses to UK compliance bodies (including HMRC). Instafile links directly to underlying Xero data to allow preparation and filing of Corporation Tax returns together with statutory accounts. The acquisition price is a maximum of GBP £5.25 million paid over three years, based in part on the achievement of certain performance targets. The acquisition is expected to be completed in December 2018.
  • Abacus Property (APB) – AGM
  • REA Group (REA) – Stepping down at REA and stepping up to become President, Global Digital Real Estate, News Corp, based in New York
  • G8 Education (GEM) – Investor Day. Positive outlook and EBIT forecast in line with consensus expectations

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  • Graincorp (GNC) – Results – Earnings at the upper end of its increased guidance range due to continued positive performance from the Malt business and strong contributions from Bulk Liquid Terminals and Grains’ international grain trading book. Down on last year due to the material reduction in eastern Australian grain production and consequent impact on throughput volumes and exports. Underlying EBITDA1 $269 million (FY17: $390 million); Underlying NPAT2 $71 million (FY17: $142 million); Statutory NPAT3 $71 million (FY17: $125 million); Fully franked final dividend of 8 cents per share (cps); total FY18 dividend payment 16 cps (FY17: 30 cps)
  • MYOB (MYO) – Investor Day. Confirms market leadership position in online subscriber growth in Australia and New Zealand, adding more than 200,000 online subscribers in the 12 months to September 2018; Online subscribers reached more than 550,000 at the end of September 2018, up 60 per cent year on year; MYOB’s strategy to invest for future growth has commenced, with a clear focus on increasing subscribers, improving retention and lifting ARPU; The accelerated investment in the MYOB Platform is progressing well. Attendees at today’s Investor Day will see the first product demonstration of the end-to-end compliance workflows in the MYOB Platform. Other updates include the acceleration of the online Corporate Compliance and Document Management modules, with a brought forward date to be initially in market in 2019; New strategic partnership with Mastercard enables supplier and payroll payments to be made within MYOB software, opening up an addressable market opportunity of c.$200bn for MYOB to penetrate; A highly engaged team together with a strong employee brand delivers engagement scores well above the New Tech benchmark; Medium-term guidance reaffirmed; MYOB on track to reach 1 million online subscribers in 2020

OVERNIGHT

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SPI FUTURES +5

US EQUITIES – S&P500 -21 (-0.76%), Dow Jones -206 (-0.81%), Nasdaq -64 (-0.90%).

Main themes

  • Apple weakness continued with a few more broker downgrades
  • Congresswoman Maxine Waters made regulatory remarks, saying the days of weakening regulations will be coming to an end; financials sector underperforms
  • UK Prime Minister Theresa May confirms her cabinet has agreed to a Brexit deal.

EUROPEAN MARKETS – All lower. STOXX500 -0.60%, UK FTSE -0.28%, German DAX -0.52%, French CAC -0.65%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is eased 0.4% to 96.93.
  • The Aussie dollar has strengthened to US72.37c.

BONDS – 2-yr: -2 bps to 2.86%, 5-yr: -4 bps to 2.95%, 10-yr: -3 bps to 3.12%, 30-yr: -1 bp to 3.35%

COMMODITIES

  • WTI crude futures closed up US56c or 1.0% at US$56.25, breaking a 12 session losing streak on reports OPEC could cut production further..
  • Iron Ore – IRESS reports iron ore unchanged at US$75.50 a tonne. The CommSec site says China Import (Fines 62% Fe) was down US65c at US$74.55dry ton. (CFR Tianjin port)
  • LME metals – Mostly higher. Cu +0.28% the exception, Ni -0.31% the exception, Al +0.39%.

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – October CPI 0.3% (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.1%) and core CPI 0.2% (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.1%). CPI was up 2.5% yoy, up from 2.3%.
  • Brexit – British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that her cabinet has approved the draft withdrawal agreement.
  • Italy – The Italian government replied to the EC request for a corrected budget, but the main points of the plan were left unchanged. A formal reply is expected next week.
  • European data – Q3 GDP +0.2% (as expected, last 0.2%) to be +1.7%yoy (as expected, last 1.7%). Q3 Employment Change +0.2% (expected 0.3%; last 0.4%) to be +1.3%yoy (expected 1.4%; last 1.5%). September Industrial Production -0.3% (expected -0.4%; last 1.0%) to be +0.9%yoy (expected 0.3%; last 0.9%); German flash Q3 GDP -0.2% (expected -0.3%; last 0.5%) to be +1.1%yoy (expected 1.3%; last 2.3%); French CPI +0.1% (expected 0.1%; last 0.1%) to be +2.2%yoy (as expected, last 2.2%).
  • UK CPI +0.1% (expected 0.2%; last 0.1%) to be +2.4%yoy (expected 2.5%; last 2.4%). Core CPI +1.9% yoy (as expected, last 1.9%). Input PPI +0.8% (expected 0.6%; last 1.4%) and Output PPI +0.3% (expected 0.2%; last 0.4%). House Price Index +3.5%yoy (expected 3.3%; last 3.1%)

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“It is almost always the cover-up rather than the event that causes trouble.” – Howard Baker. American statesman and vice chair of the Senate Watergate Committee, born this day in 1925.

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