MID MORNING MARKETS 30-11-18

The ASX 200 is down 33 points in mid morning trade quieter night. Energy the best sector, Consumer & defensives worst. CCL investor day, MYR AGM. G20 ahead and BIG week with RBA, GDP, US employment, EU employment, OPEC #ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Economic data – Private Sector Credit
  • AGM – Myer (MYR)
  • Chinese data – NBS Manufacturing PMI, Non Manufacturing PMI
  • Japanese data – Construction Orders, Consumer Confidence, Housing Starts, Tokyo CPI, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production

TONIGHT

  • UK – GfK Consumer Confidence
  • European – Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash, Inflation Rate YoY Flash, Unemployment Rate

US – Chicago PMI

COMPANY NEWS

  • Ardent Leisure (ALG) – new code. Opens at 11am
  • Cocacola Amatil (CCL) – Investor Day

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  • Origin Energy (ORG) – New discount prices for concession customers in New South Wales, ACT, Queensland and South Australia. Customers on standing offers or non-discounted plans will get an automatic 10% discount on electricity usage charges from 1 January 2019. Applies to more than 230,000 concession card holders who will save an average of $1691 off Origin’s already low standing offer rate. Vic provides 26% discounts to concession card holders and 17% to customers on standing offers or non-discounted plans. Customers in Origin’s hardship program, Power On, will continue to receive the tariff freeze that has been in place since mid-2017, saving them on average $695 through guaranteed discounts and lower prices.

NEXT WEEK

It’s a really big week for economic data, with the OPEC meeting on 6 December also in focus during the week.

  • RBA meets on Tuesday, followed by GDP on Wednesday. Retail sales and trade data on Thursday and housing data on Friday
  • Chinese – Caixin PMI numbers
  • European – Markit PMI, retail sales, and employment final GDP on Friday.
  • US – ISM and jobs numbers will be the main focus

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OVERNIGHT

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SPI FUTURES -2

US EQUITIES – S&P 500 -6 (-0.22%), Dow -28 (-0.11%), NASDAQ -19 (-0.25%)

Main themes

  • FOMC Minutes set the stage for December rate hike. Almost all policymakers believe that another rate hike will be warranted “fairly soon.” Policymakers also noted that fiscal stimulus and a strong consumer could produce upside risks.
  • PCE price index subdued +0.2%
  • Hopes for a US-China trade deal dampened by news White House advisor Peter Navarro would be attending the dinner between President Donald Trump and Chinese Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires at the G-20. Navarro is considered hawkish in any deal.

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mixed. STOXX500 +0.20%, UK FTSE +0.49%, German DAX -0.01%, French CAC +0.46%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD was little changed at 96.80.
  • The Aussie dollar is stronger at US73.19c.

BONDS – 2-yr: UNCH at 2.80%, 5-yr: UNCH at 2.86%, 10-yr: -1 bp to 3.04%, 30-yr: UNCH at 3.33%

COMMODITIES

  • WTI crude futures were up US$1.16 or 2.3% at US$51.45). Reports that Russia has accepted the need to cut production. Market sentiment is dominated by the G20 meeting on November 30-December 1, followed by the OPEC meeting on December 6.
  • Iron Ore – IRESS reports iron ore flat at US$63.50 a tonne. The CommSec site says China Import (Fines 62% Fe) was downUS65c at US$65.65 dry ton. (CFR Tianjin port)
  • LME metals – Cu +1.07%, Ni +1.75%, Al +0.60%

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – Personal Income 0.5% (consensus 0.4%; prior 0.2%), Personal Spending 0.6% (consensus 0.4%; prior 0.2%), PCE Prices 0.2% (prior 0.1%), core PCE Prices 0.1% (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.2%), weekly Initial Claims 234K (consensus 218K; prior 224K), and Continuing Claims 1710K (prior 1660K); Pending Home Sales -2.6% (consensus 0.7%; prior 0.7%)
  • European data – Eurozone November Business and Consumer Survey 109.5 (expected 109.0; last 109.7); German November Unemployment Change -16,000 (expected -10,000; last -12,000) and November Unemployment Rate 5.0% (expected 5.1%; last 5.1%); French Q3 GDP +0.4% (expected 0.4%; last 0.4%) to be +1.4%yoy (last 1.5%). October Consumer Spending +0.8% (expected 0.5%; last -1.7%)
  • UK data – October Mortgage Approvals 67,090 (expected 64,550; last 65,730) and Mortgage Lending GBP4.12 billion (expected GBP3.50 billion; last GBP4.02 billion). October Consumer Credit GBP894 million (expected GBP1.00 billion; last GBP852 million)

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