MID MORNING MARKETS 04-02-19

The ASX 200 is down 9 points in mid-morning trade after a big night in the US. Financials ↓ ahead of RC final report, Materials lacklustre also. BLD downdate, ASB update, Chinese New Year, Big week. #ausbiz

m4m5m6TODAY

  • Banking Royal commission report
  • Economic data – TD-MI Inflation Gauge, Building Permits, ANZ Job Advertisements
  • Chinese holiday – Markets in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore closed through Wednesday for Lunar New Year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng will reopen on Thursday, China’s Shanghai Composite will be closed throughout the next week.

TONIGHT

  • UK – Construction PMI
  • European – PPI
  • US Factory orders

COMPANY NEWS

  • Boral (BLD) – Trading update and revised guidance. FY expected NAPT ~$200m, EBITDA ~$485m. EBITDA from Boral Australia excluding Property to be similar to the prior year, and Property earnings of around $30 million, which will all be in the second half (compared with $63 million in FY2018); FY2019 EBITDA growth from Boral North America, of approximately 15% in US dollars, excluding discontinued operations; and Slightly lower profits from USG Boral.
  • Austal (ASB) – Guidance upgrade to $1.9bn for FY19, from $1.3-1.4bn guided previously. Greater number of Littoral Combat ships in the US, better than expected progress in construction, early receipt of EPF 13 and 14, exchange rate, greater support and sustainment revenue growth,  increased volume in Vietnam, accelerated construction of a commercial vessel in Australia
  • Vicinity Centres (VCX) – CFO resigned.

THIS WEEK

  • Economic data – Building permits and ANZ job ads on Monday, trade data and retail sales on Tuesday, RBA statement on monetary policy on Friday
  • Earnings – CBA and Cimic (CIM), IAG on Wednesday, AGL and Downder EDI (DOW) on Thursday.
  • Europe – PPI on Monday, retails sales on Tuesday
  • UK – Bank of England meeting on Thursday.
  • US – quiet week. Factory order .

LAST WEEK

m1m2m3


FRIDAY NIGHT

m10

SPI FUTURES +20

US EQUITIES – S&P 500 +2 (+0.09%), Dow +64 (+0.26%), NASDAQ -18 (-0.25%)

Main themes

  • US market was up 193 after the strong US jobs numbers.
  • Amazon (-5.4%) weighed after guiding Q1 revenue below expectations. Exxon Mobil (+3.6%), Chevron (+3.24%) rise on better-than-expected earnings

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mostly stronger. STOXX500 +0.74%, UK FTSE +0.74%, German DAX +0.07%, French CAC +0.53%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is little changed at FOMC at 95.62.
  • The Aussie dollar is weaker at US72.50c.

BONDS – significantly weaker – 2-yr: +4 bps to 2.50%, 3-yr: +7 bps to 2.50%, 5-yr: +7 bps to 2.51%, 10-yr: +6 bps to 2.69%, 30-yr: +3 bps to 3.03%

COMMODITIES

  • WTI crude futures were up US$1.47 or 2.7% at $55.26 on the stonger growth umbers. Oil was up over 3% for the week.
  • Iron Ore – CommSec reports iron ore was up US$1.60 or 1.9% at US$87.00. Overall iron ore is up 13% or so this week on the back of the dam wall failure at Vale’s iron ore mine in Brazil.
  • LME metals – Mixed. Copper -0.49%, nickel +1.44%, aluminium -1.41%

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – Nonfarm Payrolls 304,000 (consensus 160,000; prior 222,000), Nonfarm Private Payrolls 296,000 (consensus 160,000; prior 206,000), Unemployment Rate 4.0% (consensus 3.9%; prior 3.9%), Average Hourly Earnings 0.1% (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.4%), and Average Workweek 34.5 (consensus 34.4; prior 34.5); ISM Manufacturing Index 56.6 (consensus 53.6; prior 54.3), Final January Michigan Sentiment Index 91.2 (consensus 90.7; prior 90.7), November Construction Spending 0.8% (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.1%), and November Wholesale Inventories 0.3% (consensus 0.4%; prior 0.9%)
  • Euro inflation slowed to 1.4% form 1.6% (1.5% expected)..
  • Deutsche Bank (-0.59%) reported it first full year profit in 4 years.

 

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