MID MORNINGS MARKETS 4-04-19

The ASX 200 is down 31 points in mid morning trade after a mostly +ve o/n session. All sector lower but IT struggling for gains. GNC demerger, EHE quantifies funding impact, IFL’s Kelaher gone, presentations from TGR, NHF, MYX. HVN ex, no data #ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Nothing on the economic calendar
  • Ex-dividend – Harvey Norman (HVN) 12.0c, Prime Financial Group (PFG) 0.2c

COMPANY NEWS

  • IOOF (IFL) – CEO Chris Kelaher  leaving the company. Renato Mota staying in the role of Acting CEO
  • Graincorp (GNC) – Demerging the malt business. GrainCorp’s Grains and Oils businesses will be combined into an integrated grains and edible oils business (“New GrainCorp”). The proposed demerger would enable both MaltCo and New GrainCorp to pursue independent operating strategies, with discrete capital structures, and attract investors with different priorities; New GrainCorp is evaluating options to reduce cash flow volatility, including consideration of a long-term grain production derivative instrument; The proposed creation of MaltCo and New GrainCorp would enable and accelerate simplification and cost reduction initiatives expected to deliver annualised cost saving to New GrainCorp of approximately $20m; Targeting implementation of the demerger by the end of CY2019; Engagement with parties who have expressed an interest in part or parts of GrainCorp’s portfolio, and with Long-Term Asset Partners Pty Ltd, continues in parallel. Mark Palmquist will become Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer of MaltCo. Klaus Pamminger, currently Group General Manager Grains, has been appointed as Chief Operating Officer of GrainCorp and, on demerger, Mr Pamminger will succeed Mr Palmquist as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of New GrainCorp
  • Nib Holdings (NHF) – Restated current market guidance

m1

  • Magellan Financial Group (MFG) – In March, Magellan experienced net inflows of $1,177m, which included net retail inflows of $3572m and net institutional inflows of $820m.

m2

  • Mayne Pharma (MYX) – Presentation
  • Tassal Group (TGR) – Presentation.

m3

  • Galaxy (GXY) – Simon Hay has been appointed new CEO,
  • Estia Health (EHE) – Update. The Company estimates that, subject to occupancy levels remaining in line with recent performance, it will receive and recognise as revenue (in accordance with accounting standards) in FY19, an additional $8.75m-$9.25m relating to the period 20 March 2019 to 30 June 2019. This revenue will be additional to existing and re-affirmed Earnings Guidance. Average occupancy during the period 1 January to 31 March 2019 was 93.6% and spot occupancy at 31 March 2019 was 93.8%

OVERNIGHT

m10m11

SPI FUTURES +1

US EQUITIES – S&P 500 +6 (+0.21%), Dow +39 (+0.15%), NASDAQ +47 (+0.60%)

Main themes

  • Treasuries slide after FT quotes official with U.S. Chamber of Commerce as saying the bulk of the trade deal with China is complete. The official also said that 90% of the deal is done and that the remaining 10% is the hardest part. Trade talks with China’s Vice Premier Liu He are expected to resume in Washington today.
  • Stronger economic data in Australia, China and Europe

EUROPEAN MARKETS – All positive. STOXX600 +1.01%, UK FTSE +0.37%, German DAX +1.70%, French CAC +0.84%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is weaker at 97.06,
  • The Aussie dollar is stronger at US71.19.

BONDS – 2-yr: +1 bp to 2.32%, 3-yr: +2 bps to 2.28%, 5-yr: +3 bps to 2.32%, 10-yr: +4 bps to 2.52%, 30-yr: +4 bps to 2.93%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures is down US12c to US$62.46 a barrel, following a strong rally over the previous 3 days. API inventories rose 7.2mb compared to expectations of a fall of 425,000.
  • Iron Ore – IRESS reports that iron ore was unchanged at $86.500. CommSec reports iron ore was up US$3.45 or 3.8% to U$93.10. Iron ore prices are up almost 11% in 4 days.
  • LME metals – Mixed. Copper +0.95%, nickel +1.56%, aluminium +0.74%

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – Weekly MBA Mortgage Index 18.6% (prior 8.9%); ADP Employment Change 129,000 (consensus 178,000; prior 197,000); ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 56.1 (consensus 57.9; prior 59.7) the lowest since August 2017
  • China’s March Caixin Services PMI increased to 54.4 (expected 52.3) from 51.1.

m12

  • Local data – Retail Sales increased 0.8% (expected 0.3%: last 0.1%). February trade surplus $4.80 bln (expected surplus of $3.71 bln; prior surplus of $4.35 bln). March AIG Services Index increased to 44.8 from 44.5 while March Services PMI decreased to 49.5 (expected 49.8) from 49.8.

m13

  • European data – Retail Sales increased 0.4% (expected 0.2%; last 0.9%) to be +growing 2.8%yoy (expected 2.3%; last 2.2%). March Services PMI increased to 53.3 (expected 52.7) from 52.7.
  • Brexit – UK Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will ask the EU for an extension to the Brexit deadline in order to “break the logjam” in Parliament. Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned Britain still faces an “alarmingly high” risk of a no-deal Brexit, which could happen suddenly and by accident without politicians fully intending it.
  • Caterpillar (CAT) down after Deutsche Bank downgraded to a Hold (from Buy).

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