MID MORNING MARKETS 08-04-19

The ASX 200 is up 27 points in mid-morning trade after a fabulous US jobs number. Healthcare, Energy, Materials good, banks a drag. Big week ahead. Big week of US earnings, US CPI. Chinese inflation and trade #ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Economic data – Westpac Consumer Confidence
  • Japanese – PPI, Machinery Orders

TONIGHT

  • US factory orders

COMPANY NEWS

  • Lynas Corp (LYC) – Market briefing on Malaysia
  • Flight Centre (FLT) – Further upside in global corporate sector. Fast-tracking growth within the small to medium-sized (SME) corporate sector by securing a 25% interest in The Upside Travel Company, a Washington DC-based, technology-driven business launched in 2017 by Priceline founder Jay Walker. FLT will become Upside’s largest individual shareholder and will gain access to a travel technology platform and software development resources that will enhance its already strong SME offering. Also
  • Resolute Gold (RSG) – Gold production of 98,105oz for March 2019 quarter (up 33% or 24,414oz on December 2018 quarter); Exceptional performance at Syama with production increased by 50% to 84,552oz of gold produced; On track for FY19 guidance to 30 June 2019 of 300koz at AISC of A$1,280/oz (US$960/oz)

THIS WEEK

  • Australia – Job ads, consumer confidence, housing finance, RBA stability review
  • China – inflation, trade data
  • UK GDP and IP
  • Europe – ECB Meeting and IP
  • US FOMC Meeting minutes, factory orders, CPI
  • US earnings – Earnings growth of -3.7%, the first negative quarter in nearly 3 years. This week there is Levi Strauss, Delta Arilines, Bed Bath & Beyond, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo
  • Brexit – The Council of the European Union meets Wednesday, and will consider the UK’s request to extend the Brexit deadline, originally this coming Friday.

LAST WEEK

  • Strong out performance of China (+5.04%) and German (+4.2%), with the US +2.0%. It came after easing growth concerns on the much stronger Chinese official and Caixin PMI numbers, both manufacturing and services.
  • Our market significantly underperformed which was a little surprising given the Chinese data and mostly positive response to the budget and strong data – retail sales and trade data.
  • Sell off in bonds was another feature, AU 10 year +18bp, and yet little change in the A4 which has been trading in fairly narrow range since last August.

m1m2m3


FRIDAY NIGHT MARKETS

m10m11

SPI FUTURES +32

US EQUITIES – S&P 500 +13 (+0.46%), Dow +40 (+0.15%), NASDAQ +47 (+0.59%)

Main themes

  • Stronger than expected jobs numbers but weaker than expected average hourly earnings growth
  • More positive US-China trade chatter

 

  • Broad-based advance led by the S&P 500 energy sector amid rise in oil prices

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mostly positive. STOXX600 +0.09%, UK FTSE +0.61%, German DAX +0.18%, French CAC +0.23%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is stronger at 97.36
  • The Aussie dollar is a touch weaker at US71.08.

BONDS – 2-yr: +1 bp to 2.34%, 3-yr: +1 bp to 2.29%, 5-yr: -1 bp to 2.31%, 10-yr: -1 bp to 2.50%, 30-yr: -1 bp to 2.91%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures closed up US98c at $63.11 on the stronger data, an escalation of the conflict in Libya and the impact of sanction on Venezeula. The Baker Hughes rig count increased by 15 (the largest increase since last May) to 831.
  • Iron Ore – IRESS reports that iron ore was up US$1.00 at $93.50. CommSec reports iron ore was down 10c or 0.1% to U$92.80.
  • LME metals – Mostly lower. Copper -0.69%, nickel -0.46%, aluminium -1.10%

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – Nonfarm Payrolls 196,000 (consensus 170,000; prior 33,000 revised from 20K, Nonfarm Private Payrolls 182,000 (consensus 160,000; prior 28,000), Average Hourly Earnings 0.1% (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.4%) to be up 3.2%yoy (consensus 3.3%, prior 3.4%), Unemployment Rate 3.8% (consensus 3.8%; prior 3.8%), and Average Workweek 34.5 (consensus 34.5; prior 34.4); February Consumer Credit $15.20bn (consensus $18.00bn; prior $17.70bn)
  • The employment report achieved 3 key objectives – i) the moderation in yoy wage growth will keep the Fed sidelined, ii) it exposed the previous weak payrolls data to be an aberration, and iii) it was strong enough to ease recession concerns.
  • Samsung – Preliminary Q1 results. Profit fell 60% on a 14% decrease in revenue.
  • Brexit – British Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested an Article 50 extension until June 30, meaning the UK will prepare to hold elections to the EU parliament in late May if a Brexit deal is not secured by May 23.
  • European data – German February Industrial Production 0.7% (expected 0.6%; last -0.8%); Spanish February Industrial Production -0.3%yoy (expected 0.2%; last 2.7%).
  • Spain will hold national elections on April 28.

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