MID MORNING MARKETS 01-05-19

The ASX 200 is up 42 points in late-morning trade after another quiet (before the storm) night. Consumer stocks the drag. Banks ↑ on result. BGA can keep spreading its peanut butter packaging. Macquarie confession conference continues. FOMC ahead. #ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Economic data – CoreLogic house prices, AIG Manufacturing Index, CommBank Australia Manufacturing PMI Final
  • Macquarie equities conference
  • Chinese and Japanese markets closed

TONIGHT

  • UK – Lending Data
  • US economic data – ADP Employment Change, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Index, FOMC Rate Decision

OTHER COMPANY NEWS

  • ANZ Interim Results. Cash profit up 2% to $3.56bn. CET 1 Capital Ratio increased to 11.5%, up 45bps. ROE up 13 bps to 12.0% with Cash EPS up 5% to 124.8c. The Interim Dividend is 80cps. Noted headwinds. “Retail banking in Australia will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future with subdued credit growth, intense competition and increased compliance costs impacting earnings.”
  • Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) – Notes the Wine Australia MarQ export data. Cautions against using this as a direct read-through for TWE’s trading performance. Confirmed positive momentum and strong trading performance. Reiterated guidance for reported EBITS growth of approximately 25% for F19, and in the range of approximately 15% to 20% for F201
  • Bega Cheese (BGA) – Judgement on federal court proceedings. Federal Court of Australia has today confirmed Bega Cheese’s right to continue to use the trade dress associated with the peanut butter products that it acquired as part of its purchase of the Mondelez Grocery Business in 2017.

MACQUARIE EQUITY CONFERENCE

  • A2Milk (A2M)

m1

  • Speedcast (SDA) – Maritime -Mid to high single digit organic revenue growth expected in 2019. Energy – Mid to high single-digit growth expected in 2019, accelerating in 2020. EEM – Overall low double-digit revenue decline expected in 2019 due to the transition into Phase 2 of the NBN project which will result in a revenue decrease of $20-25m, and will not be fully offset by service revenue growth. Gov’t – Organic growth expected to continue in 2019, consistent with US Government satcom market, albeit slower than in 2018.

m2

  • Coca-cola Amatil (CCL)

m3

Others – Nib Holdings (NHF), Suncorp (SUN), Mineral Resources (MIN), Steadfast Group (SDF), Perpetual (PPT), Skycity (SKT), Nearmap (NEA), Nine Entertainment (NEC), Orora (ORA), IDP Education (IEL), Origin Energy (ORG), Bingo (BIN)


OVERNIGHT

m10m11

SPI FUTURES +20

US EQUITIES – S&P 500 +3 (+0.10%), Dow +39 (+0.15%), NASDAQ -66 (0.81%).

Main themes –

  • Nasdaq underperformed – Alphabet (-7.50%) despite beating on earnings ($11.90 vs $10.61exp) as earnings $36.34bn vs $37.33bn exp). Shares are up 24% this year.
  • General Electric (+4.52%) reported strong earnings and revenue. Apple reports after the close
  • US/China Trade – White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said Tuesday the Trump administration’s trade talks with China will be resolved within the next two weeks.
  • Quiet ahead of the FOMC decision.

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mostly higher. STOXX600 +0.08%, UK FTSE +0.17%, German DAX +0.10%, French CAC +0.21%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is little changed at 97.52
  • The Aussie dollar is a bit stronger at 70.47.

BONDS – 2-yr: -1 bp to 2.29%, 3-yr: -1 bp to 2.26%, 5-yr: -1 bp to 2.31%, 10-yr: -1 bp to 2.53%, 30-yr: -1 bp to 2.96%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures closed up US41c to US$63.91 a barrel, as tensions in Venezeula escalated. Prices initially rallied after opposition leader Juan Guaido called for military backing to end President Maduro’s rule, but pared gains after the government said state-run oil company PDVSA’s operations were not disrupted and top military leaders remained loyal
  • Iron Ore – IRESS has the iron ore price unchanged at US$95.50 a tonne. CommSec reports iron ore was up US$1.20 or 1.3% at U$94.55.
  • LME metals – Mixed. Copper +0.17%, nickel -1.41%, aluminium -0.98%

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – Q1 Employment Cost Index 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%; prior 0.7%); February S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 3.0% (consensus 3.1%; prior 3.5%); April Chicago PMI 52.6 (consensus 58.2; prior 58.7); March Pending Home Sales 3.8% (consensus 1.1%; prior -1.0%) and April Consumer Confidence 129.2 (consensus 127.3; prior 124.2)
  • Chinese data disappointed –

m12

  • European data – Eurozone’s flash Q1 GDP 0.4% (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%), to be 1.2%yoy (expected 1.1%; last 1.1%). The Unemployment Rate 7.7% (expected 7.8%, previous 8%). Italian flash Q1 GDP 0.2% (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%), to be 0.1% (expected -0.1%; last 0.6%);

 

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