MID MORNING MARKETS 07-05-19

The ASX 200 is up 27 points in mid-morning trade after a big bounce from Trump’s trade twitter tantrum. Materials best with FMG +6.0% on fire. Banks mixed. Staples drag. GNC takeover off, TGR presentation. Big data and RBA spotlight.#ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Economic data – AIG Construction Index, Balance of Trade, Imports/Exports, Retail Sales
  • RBA Interest Rate Decision. The futures are suggesting there is a 40% chance of a rate cut
  • Japanese data – Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Final
  • Chinese data – Foreign Exchange Reserves

TONIGHT

  • US economic data – JOLTS – Job Openings, Consumer Credit

COMPANY NEWS

  • Graincorp (GNC) – Long-Term Asset Partners Pty Ltd has walked away from its $10.42 takeover offer. GNC says it has lots of other things going on including i) The proposed demerger of its Malt business; ii) The proposed combination of the Grains and Oils businesses and associated simplification and cost reduction benefits; iii) The agreement to sell the Australian Bulk Liquid Terminals to ANZ Terminals; iv) Initiatives to increase through-the-cycle EBITDA in its Grains business; and v) Investment in the Fraser Grain Terminal in Vancouver, Canada.
  • Fletcher Building (FBU) – Team changes. Michele Kernahan, Chief Executive Building Products, is leaving at the end of July. And John Bell, Chief Information Officer, is retiring from full time work in 2H 2019.
  • Tassal Group (TGR) – Investment Conference presentation.

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  • Credit Corp (CCP) – Completed SPP. Scaled back applications to a total of A$15 million on a pro rata basis at an issue price of A$20.45 per share. Total raised A$125 million.

OVERNIGHT

m10m11

SPI FUTURES +25

US EQUITIES – S&P 500 -13 (-0.45%), Dow -66 (-0.25%), NASDAQ -41 (-0.50%).

Main themes –

  • Volatile session after President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on imports from China.
  • News US deploying a carrier group and bombers in the Middle east as tensions with Iran increase.

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Lower. STOXX600 -0.889%, UK FTSE market closed, German DAX -1.01%, French CAC -1.18%

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is little changed at 97.50
  • The Aussie dollar is weaker at 69.97c after reaching a low of 69.63 yesterday.

BONDS – Big rally. 2-yr: -1 bp to 2.31%, 3-yr: -3 bps to 2.28%, 5-yr: -4 bps to 2.29%, 10-yr: -3 bps to 2.50%, 30-yr: -2 bps to 2.91%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures closed up US31c at US$62.25 a barrel in a volatile session, on increasing tension between the US and Iran, after news the US is deploying a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East. Oil had earlier fallen to US$60.04 on the trade issue.
  • Gold futures settled up 0.2% at US$1,283.80 an ounce.
  • Iron Ore – IRESS has the iron ore price up US$1 at US$96.50 a tonne. CommSec has iron ore down US$1.55 or 1.6% to S$93.10 a tonne.
  • LME metals – Closed for a bank holiday

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US-China trade – President Trump tweeted threats to increase the tariff level on $200bn worth of imports from China to 25.0% this week and impose tariffs on remaining $325bn Chinese imports. This was reportedly due to President Trump hearing that Chinese officials are no longer willing to agree to a trade deal that would require changes to Chinese law. There were concerns China’s Vice Premier Liu He would cancel the upcoming trip to Washington, but South China Morning Post reported that the vice premier’s trip will still occur – but will be delayed by three days, smaller in size (than 100 originally planned), and shortened to just one day.
  • Chinese stimulus – The PBoC lowered the RRR for small and medium banks by 350bps to 8.00% (effective May 15).
  • Chinese data – The Services PMI increased to 54.5 in April (expected 54.3, previous 54.4)
  • Brexit – British PM Theresa May is reportedly hopeful that she will be able to convince Labour to back her withdrawal bill.
  • European data – Retail sales 0.0% (expected -0.1%; last 0.5%) to be 1.9%yoy (expected 1.8%; last 3.0%). Services PMI 52.8 (expected 52.5, prior 52.5) and Sentix Investor Confidence 5.3 (expected 1.1, prior -0.3).

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