MID MORNING MARKETS 10-05-19

The ASX 200 is up 3 points in mid-morning trade after another wild night of trade drama. Initial gains faded. Utilities & Energy best, Financials lag, REA Q result, ABC AGM. Big week ahead. Jobs, wages and Euro trifecta.  #ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
  • Japanese data – Household Spending, Average Cash Earnings, BoJ Summary of Opinions

TONIGHT

  • UK – Balance of Trade, Construction Output, GDP Growth Rate, Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, Business Investment
  • US economic data – CPI, Core CPI

COMPANY NEWS

  • Cochlear (COH) – Investor Day
  • REA Group (REA) – Q3 results. For 9 months ended 31 March 2019, revenue growth of 13% to $667.8m and EBITDA growth from core operations1 of 15% to $404.7m. 9% decrease in national listings over the three month period (including listing declines of 18% in Sydney and 12% in Melbourne). Revenue growth reflects the price changes that took effect from 1 July 2018, improved product mix and depth penetration, and stronger contribution from products such as Audience Maximiser. “With the Banking Royal Commission now behind us and the Federal election taking place next weekend, we expect less uncertainty surrounding the property market as we enter the new financial year,” OUTLOOK – Market conditions are not expected to improve in the short term, with listing numbers impacted by consecutive long weekends over Easter and Anzac Day, as well as the Federal election campaign. These circumstances did not exist in the prior year resulting in an exaggerated decline of 22% in April national residential listings in April. Sydney was down 39% and Melbourne down 35%. As a result of these unusual market circumstances, we expect Q4 to have a lower rate of revenue growth than Q3, while expense growth will also be lower than Q3. The rate of revenue growth is still expected to exceed the rate of cost growth for the full year, however, these growth rates will be broadly similar in the second half.

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  • GrainCorp (GNC) – Satisfied conditions for the sale of its Bulk liquid terminals to ANZ Terminals (it was conditional on GNC not entering into a change of control).

NEXT WEEK

A huge week domestically with wages and employment data, consumer confidence and housing finance. Lot’s on is Europe as well, while it “relatively” quiet in the US

  • Australia – Housing finance on Monday, NAB business confidence Tuesday, wages and Westpac consumer confidence on Wednesday and employment data on Thursday.
  • Chinese data – Industrial production and retail sales on Wednesday
  • Europe – GDP and employment and inflation data
  • UK – employment data
  • US – Retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and building permits and consumer sentiment.

OVERNIGHT

m10m11

SPI FUTURES -9

US EQUITIES – S&P 500 -9 (-0.30%), Dow -139 (-0.54%), NASDAQ -33 (-0.41%).

Main themes –

  • Another volatile session, the Dow down 450 points and S&P500 down 43 points at worst but then recovered when Trump sid he received a letter from Chinese President Xi Jinping.
  • US-Chinese trade issues the main focus, with an increase in tariffs set to take place tonight during Vice Premier Liu He’s visit to Washington

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Lower. STOXX600 -1.65%, UK FTSE -0.87%, German DAX -1.69%, French CAC -1.93%

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is a bit weaker at 97.42 but reaching a 4month high against the Yuan.
  • The Aussie dollar is little changed at US69.90c.

BONDS – 2-yr: -4 bps to 2.26%, 3-yr: -4 bps to 2.22%, 5-yr: -3 bps to 2.25%, 10-yr: -3 bps to 2.46%, 30-yr: -1 bp to 2.88%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures were down US42c at US$61.70 a barrel on trade tension issues.
  • Iron Ore – CommSec has iron ore up US90c or 1.0% to US$95.15 a tonne.
  • LME metals – Mostly weaker. Cu -0.67%, Ni -1.59%, Al -0.00%

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – Weekly Initial Claims 228,000 (consensus 220,000; prior 230,000), Continuing Claims 1.684m; prior 1.671m), April PPI 0.2% (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.6%), Core PPI 0.1% (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%), and March Trade Balance -$50.00bn (consensus -$51.20bn; prior -$49.30bn); March Wholesale Inventories -0.1% (consensus 0.1%; prior 0.4%);
  • The US Navy conducted joint drills with vessels from Japan, India, and Philippines in the South China Sea. The weeklong drills were concluded yesterday.
  • Chinese data – April CPI +0.1% (as expected, last -0.4%), +2.5%yoy (as expected, last 2.3%). Pork prices up 14.4% as the impact of AFS starts to be felt.

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