MIDDAY MARKETS 24-05-19

The ASX 200 is down 41 points at midday as trade and growth concerns back on the agenda. No surprises gold doing the best and Energy the worst (5.7% fall in oil o/n). EHE trading ↑date, SYD AGM. US Markets closed Monday and quiet on data. #ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Ex-dividend – Concentrated Leaders Fund (CLF) 5.3c
  • Japanese – Inflation Rate

TONIGHT

  • UK – Retail Sales, CBI Distributive Trades
  • US economic data – Durable Orders

COMPANY NEWS

  • Estia health (EHE) – Trading Update. FY19 EBITDA (after additional funding increase, Royal Commission costs, costs of opening new homes and home closure costs) expected to be $92 – $94m. An increase of 2-4% compared to FY18 but lower than previously anticipated. Occupancy has been affected by continuing adverse publicity in the sector and influenza in South Australia. Also increased compliance activity. RC costs $2.3m.
  • AusNet (AST) – Tony Narvaez appointed the new Managing Director of AusNet Services, effective 1 November 2019, replacing Nino Ficca.
  • Fisher & Paykel (FPH) – Has introduced a new premium nasal cannula interface range, F&P OptiflowTM 3S.
  • Sydney Airport (SYD) – AGM and Update on SAT1 indemnity in relation to historical investments. The final position isn’t known at this stage but won’t have a material impact on operating receipts form 2019 or on guidance. “The matters in dispute have not yet been finally considered by the Danish courts and a determination may be several years away.”

SHORT CHANGED

I haven’t looked at this data in a while. Might explain the volatility in BIN and SEK. ING is #1 shorted company

m3


NEXT WEEK

US markets closed on Monday. Pretty quiet overall

  • Domestically – Building permits, CAPEX and private sector credit
  • China – Industrial profits on Monday and the official PMI numbers
  • Japan – the key data will be unemployment, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and consumer confidence on Friday.
  • UK consumer confidence, house prices and consumer credit and lending
  • US – second estimate of GDP (1st estimate 3.2%), PCE price index, Conference Board consumer confidence

m1m2


OVERNIGHT

m10m11

SPI FUTURES -29

US EQUITIES – S&P 500 -34 (-1.19%), Dow -286 (-1.11%), NASDAQ -123 (-1.58%).

Main themes –

  • Trade and growth concerns reignite.
  • The Chinese Communist Party’s flagship newspaper published commentaries warning of a “technology cold war” with the US
  • Oil down 5.7%
  • Big rally in US bonds. 10-year yield down 10bps to 2.30%.
  • European data disappoints

EUROPEAN MARKETS – All lower. STOXX600 -1.42%, UK FTSE -1.41%, German DAX -1.78%, French CAC -1.81%

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is weaker at 97.85.
  • The Aussie dollar is higher at US69.00.

BONDS – Stronger.  2-yr: -11 bps to 2.11%, 3-yr: -11 bps to 2.06%, 5-yr: -10 bps to 2.09%, 10-yr: -10 bps to 2.30%, 30-yr: -9 bps to 2.73%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures were down US$3.51 or 5.7% to US$57.91 a barrel on the trade war/global growth implications
  • Iron Ore – CommSec has iron ore down US$1.15 or 1.1% to US$102.45 a tonne.
  • LME metals – Mixed. Cu -1.26%, Ni -0.87%, Al -0.84%

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US-China trade – Still uncertainty over whether a meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Japan will occur.
  • US economic data – Weekly Initial Claims 211,000 (consensus 218,000; prior 212,000) and Continuing Claims 1.676m (prior 1.664m), New Home Sales -6.9% to 673,000 (consensus 665,000; prior 723,000)
  • European economic data weaker – May flash Manufacturing PMI 47.7 (expected 48.1, previous 47.9), flash Services PMI 52.5 (expected 53.0, previous 52.8). German flash Manufacturing PMI 44.3 (expected 44.8, previous 44.4), May flash Services PMI 55.0 (expected 55.5, previous 55.7). May ifo Business Climate Index 97.9 (expected 99.2, previous 99.2). May Current Assessment 100.6 (expected 103.6, previous 103.3) while Business Expectations 95.3 (expected 95.2, previous 95.2). French May flash Manufacturing PMI 50.6 (expected 50.0, previous 50.0) while flash Services PMI 51.7 (expected 50.8, previous 50.5). May Business Survey 104 (expected 101, previous 101).

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