MID MORNING MARKETS 04-07-19

The ASX 200 is up 28 points in mid morning trade after a record-setting night on Wall St, boosted by rate cut exp. Materials & Gold lag but banks and healthcare↑. Quiet news day. Retails sales ahead. US closed tonight. $A70.36 as ↑ continues  #ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Economic data – Retail Sales (prev -0.1%, exp 0.2%)
  • Ex-dividend – Clime Capital (CAM) 1.3c, Morphic Ethical Equities Fund (MEC) 1.0c

TONIGHT

  • US market closed
  • European retail sales

COMPANY NEWS

  • ASX – Monthly Reports. In June 2019, the average daily number of trades was 41% higher than the pcp. The average daily value traded on market of $5.5 billion was up 16% on the pcp. In June 2019, average daily futures and options on futures volumes were up 21% on the pcp. Average daily futures volume was up 21% and average daily options volume was up 9% on the pcp.

OVERNIGHT

m10m11

SPI FUTURES +22

US EQUITIES – S&P 500 +23 (+0.77%), Dow +179 (+0.67%), NASDAQ +61 (+0.75%).

Main themes –

  • Dow, S&P500 & NASDAQ at record highs, S&P500 just 4 points shy of 3,000.
  • Shortened session
  • Expectation of lower interest rates globally – (Trump tweet, Lagarde weaker data). Rates in Europe and Japan continue to drop
  • Mixed Services PMI data out of Asia and Europe
  • Weaker than expected private jobs data

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Stronger, with a positive reaction to yesterday’s nomination of IMF MD Christine Lagarde to the position of ECB President. STOXX600 +0.75%, UK FTSE +0.66%, German DAX +0.71%, French CAC +0.75%

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is a little weaker at 96.77.
  • The Aussie dollar is stronger at US70.32.

BONDS – 2-yr: -2 bps to 1.75%, 3-yr: -2 bps to 1.70%, 5-yr: -2 bps to 1.73%, 10-yr: -3 bps to 1.95%, 30-yr: -3 bps to 2.47%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures rose US65c or 1% to US$63.05 a barrel. US inventories fell 1.1mb (exp 3mb).
  • Gold futures rose 0.8% to $1,419.20 an ounce
  • Iron Ore – Commsec has iron ore up US15c or 0.1% to US$126.35 a tonne, another record high.
  • LME metals – Mixed. Cu +0.64%, Ni +1.98%, Al +0.28%. Tin +3.62, making up some of yesterday’s 6.51% drop.

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – ADP Employment Change 102K (consensus 145K, Prior revised to 41K from 27K); May Trade Balance -$55.5B (consensus -$54.4B, prior revised to -$51.2B from -$50.8B); Initial Claims for week ending June 29 221K (com consensus 222K, prior revised to 229K from 227K); Continuing Claims for week ending June 22 1.686m (prior revised to 1.694m from 1.688m); June ISM non-Manufacturing Index 55.1 (consensus 55.8, Prior 56.9); May Factory Orders -0.7% (consensus -0.5%, prior revised to -1.2% from -0.8%)
  • Fed Speak – President Trump has nominated Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton to Fed Board of Governors (Bloomberg report)
  • President Trump tweet said the US should “match” the “currency manipulation game” that he believes China and Europe are playing. General comments continue to criticise Jerome Powell of doing a bad job.
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney flagged uncertainties over Brexit and trade conflicts that prompted speculation the central bank may lower interest rates
  • Iran has warned it will increase enrichment of uranium on Sunday
  • The Commerce Department staff was told that Huawei should still be considered blacklisted (Reuters)
  • US-China trade – Bloomber reported that China could soon purchase some soybeans, corn, and pork from the US.
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes a 10% sales tax is high enough (Bloomberg)
  • European data – June Final Services PMI 53.6 (expected 53.4; last 53.4); Final Composite PMI 52.2 (expected 52.1; last 52.1)
  • Chinese data yesterday – June Caixin Services PMI 52.0 (expected 52.6; last 52.7)

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