The ASX 200 is down 46 points in mid morning trade on weak leads. Materials hit on iron ore scrutiny, banks mixed, IT the key +ve sector. Quiet data-wise but FOMC meeting minutes and Powell before congress.  #ausbiz


  • Economic data – ANZ Job Advertisements
  • Exdivided – Turners (TRA) 4.7c
  • Japanese data – Current Account, Machinery Orders


  • US economic data – Consumer Credit


  • NRW Holdings (NWH) – Fatal accident. Accident on Sunday during which a 27-year-old mining operator was fatally injured at the Baralaba North Coal Mine in the Bowen Basin, Queensland
  • Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN) – Roc South-1 drilling update. Disappointing drilling results “As we unlock this new basin on the North West Shelf we will find results that are unexpected and not as we should wish. The Roc South-1 result in the Caley and Baxter intervals is a case in point in that it will not build upon our current resource pool.”


  • Domestic data – ANZ job ads on Monday, NAB business confidence on Tuesday, housing finance on Thursday.
  • Chinese data – Inflation on Wednesday and trade data on Friday
  • UK data – GDP, industrial production
  • Bank of England Financial Stability Report
  • European industrial production
  • US data – CPI on Thursday, PPI on Friday
  • Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday
  • US Q earnings season – PepsiCo (PEP) on Tuesday morning and Kraft Heinz (KHC) on Wednesday morning. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) reports after Wednesday’s close while Delta Air Lines (DAL) releases quarterly results on Thursday morning
  • Jerome Powell gives testimony at the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress on Wednesday/Thursday



GLOBAL MARKETS LAST WEEK – Strong performance overall. US closed on a weak note but NASDAQ (+1.94%) the highlight with Google (+4.6%), Netflix (+3.6%), Apple (+3.2%) and others ↑. US$ strong, Gilts -10bp and coal (+12.0%) and iron ore (+6.1%) stronger (iron ore down on Friday


AUSSIE MARKET LAST WEEK – Outperformed global peers. Mid and small companies rebounded, interest rate sensitive sectors (A-Reits 6.7% and Utilities +3.9%) outperformed, banks -0.1% worst sub-sector after RBA cut. Horror week for SDA.





US EQUITIES – S&P500 -5 (-0.18%), Dow Jones -44 (-0.16%), NASDAQ -8 (-0.10%)

Main themes

  • Strong US jobs numbers dampen hopes of a rate cut (probability of a 50-basis points cut reduced from 25.6% just before the release to 4.9%
  • Bonds sold off heavily

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mostly weaker. STOXX600 -0.72%, UK FTSE -0.66%, German DAX -0.49%, French CAC -0.48%


  • The USD is stronger at 97.17.
  • The Aussie dollar is lower at US69.82.

BONDS – 2-yr: +12 bps to 1.87%, 3-yr: +11 bps to 1.81%, 5-yr: +11 bps to 1.84%, 10-yr: +10 bps to 2.05%, 30-yr: +8 bps to 2.55%


  • Oil – WTI futures rose US17c or 0.3% to US$57.51 on light volumes in the shorter trading week.
  • Iron Ore – Commsec has iron ore down US$8.05 or 6.2% to US$114.25 a tonne on reports authorities were preparing to crackdown on soaring prices, with China’s top steelmakers forming a working group to investigate “irregularities”
  • LME metals – Mixed. Cu -0.36%, Ni +0.81%, Al -0.41%.


  • US-Chinese trade developments – Bloomberg reported that China said the US needs to remove all tariffs on Chinese goods to get a trade deal done, while other reports said China won’t buy US agricultural goods if US “flip flops” again in future negotiations
  • US economic data – Nonfarm payrolls for June 224K (consensus 160K; Prior revised to 72K from 75K); Nonfarm Private Payrolls for June 191K (consensus 147K; Prior revised to 83K from 90K); Avg. Hourly Earnings for June 0.2% (consensus 0.3%; Prior revised to 0.3% from 0.2%) to be +3.1%yoy (exp 3.2%, prior 3.2%); Unemployment Rate for June 3.7% (consensus 3.6%; Prior 3.6%); Avg. Workweek for June 34.4 (consensus 34.4; Prior 34.4)
  • Deutsche Bank (+2.5%) – Will exit the global equities business and cut 18,000 jobs in an attempt to cut costs by €6bn.
  • European economic data – Retail Sales -0.3% (expected +0.4%, last -0.1%) to be +1.3%yoy (expected +1.6%, last +1.8%); German May Factory Orders -2.2% (expected -0.1%, last +0.4%)
  • Japanese data – Household Spending +5.5% (expected +1.2%, last -1.4%) to be +4.0%yoy (expected +1.4%, last +1.3%)

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