MID MORNING MARKETS 16-07-19

The ASX 200 is up 2 points in mid-morning trade after a big duck-paddling night (bank earnings/Chinese data beneath the surface). Energy, Telcos & Financials ↓, Gold & Materials ↑. RIO, GXY, HUB Q. RBA minutes and more banks reports ahead #ausbiz

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  • RBA Meeting Minutes
  • Q Reports – Oil Search (OSH), Rio Tinto (RIO) at 8:30am (BHP is tomorrow)
  • Ex-dividend – Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) 0.5c

TONIGHT

  • UK data – Employment Change, Average Earnings incl. Bonus, Unemployment Rate
  • European data – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Balance of Trade
  • US economic data – Retail Sales, ImportExport Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index
  • US earnings – Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Wells Fargo (WFC). After market – CSX, United Airlines (UAL),

COMPANY NEWS

  • Rio Tinto – i) Has completed the sale of its stake in the Rössing uranium mine in Namibia to China National Uranium Corporation Limited for $6.5m cash plus a contingent payment of up to $100m (linked to uranium prices) ii) update on the schedule and cost of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project in Mongolia. “ground conditions are more challenging than expected and we are having to review our mine plan and consider a number of options”. estimates for development capital spend for the Project, depending on the outcome of work to review options, is now $6.5-$7.2bn an increase of $1.2-$1.9bn from the $5.3bn previously disclosed. iii) Q production. Pilbara shipments down in April due to recovery works following Tropical Cyclone Veronica. 2019 guidance for Pilbara shipments was revised on 19 June 2019 to 320-330mt, 100% basis (previously 333-343mt) due to mine operational challenges. Unit cost guidance has been revised to $14 – $15 per tonne (previously $13 – $14 per tonne).

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  • Galaxy (GXY) – Q Production. Mt Cattlin production 56,460dmt, grading 6.0% Li2O, exceeding production guidance of 45,000 – 50,000 dmt. Mt Cattlin production unit cash cost of US$337/dmt produced FOB, placing the project as one of the lowest cost lithium concentrate operations in the world; A total of 29,439 dmt of lithium concentrate shipped; Targeting volume of 60,000 – 70,000 dmt to be shipped in Q3 2019
  • HUB24 (HUB) – Quarter net inflows of $979m (up 32.4% on pcp), Gross Inflows of $1.5bn; Annual Net Inflows of $3.9 billion (up 60.6% on pcp); FUA of $12.9bn at 30 June 2019 (up 54.3% on pcp); maintained its 1st place ranking for adviser primary platform advocacy and increased its overall adviser satisfaction ranking to 2nd place in the most recent Investment Trends Planner Technology Report; The HUB24 platform continues to grow at the fastest rate in the industry and was ranked 2nd place for both quarterly and annual net inflows in the latest available Strategic Insights data; Advisers using the HUB24 platform grew to 1,625 at 30 June 2019 (up 32.4% on pcp); Ongoing innovation and platform enhancement including the completion of our foreign currency development for Managed Portfolios and the launch of Challenger Annuities. Chosen to provide platform services by three large licensees who each undertook a platform selection process. Madison Financial Group, a national advice network with 100 financial advisers; Centrepoint Alliance, a national advice network with over 350 advisers; and one of Australia’s largest stockbroking and wealth management networks which will be formally launched in the coming weeks.

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OVERNIGHT

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SPI FUTURES -5

US EQUITIES – S&P500 +1 (+0.02%), Dow Jones +27 (+0.10%), NASDAQ +14 (+0.17%)

Main themes

  • Banks weaker after the Citigroup result.
  • Facebook (-0.47% after being down as much as 1.5%) – EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mostly higher. STOXX600 +0.23%, UK FTSE +0.34%, German DAX +0.52%, French CAC +0.10%,

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is lower at 96.94.
  • The Aussie dollar is stronger at US70.40

BONDS – 2-yr: -1 bp to 1.83%, 3-yr: -1 bp to 1.81%, 5-yr: -1 bp to 1.85%, 10-yr: -1 bp to 2.09%, 30-yr: -2 bps to 2.61%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures was down 63c or 1.1% to US$59.58 a barrel on signs the impact from the tropical storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico, which has led to oil producers cutting production and evacuating rigs, might be limited. Iran-US tensions also eased, with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani saying that Iran was ready to hold talks with the US if Washington lifted sanctions and returned to the 2015 nuclear deal it left last year.
  • Gold futures rose 0.1% to US$1,413.60 an ounce
  • Iron Ore – CommSec has iron ore up US$2.85 or 2.4% to US$121.40 a tonne.
  • LME metals – Mostly stronger. Cu +0.65%, Ni +1.22%, Al +0.79%.

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US earnings – Citigroup (-0.08%) better-than-expected results, supported by gains from the IPO of Tradeweb, an electronic bond trading platform, while margin pressure was evident. Reaction was initially positive but gains quickly reversed.
  • Earning Outlook – many analysts have been cutting estimates for 2Q earnings. Previously flat, now expecting falls of 2-3%.
  • Facebook (-0.47% after being down as much as 1.5%) – Treasury Secretary Mnuchin briefing on cryptocurrency said Facebook still has a lot of work to do to get the US to a place where it will be comfortable with its Libra cryptocurrency and serious concerns it could be used by terrorists. But overall tone sounded constructive and open to proving Facebook a chance.
  • Symantec (-14.2%) on reports that trade talks with Broadcom have ended
  • US economic data – July Empire State Manufacturing Survey 4.3 (consensus 5.0; prior -8.6)
  • FED rate cuts – Fitch Ratings expects the FOMC to cut the fed funds rate just once this year.
  • US content in iron and steel – Trump will sign an order seeking to increase the US domestic content threshold for iron and steel in federal procurements from 50% to 95%.
  • Brexit – Reports that Boris Johnson intends to negotiate a post-Brexit trade deal with the US shortly after taking office.
  • German economy – The Economy Ministry monthly report showed growth weakened in Q2 while manufacturing remained sluggish.
  • Chinese data yesterday – Mostly in line with expectations. The annual number is the lowest in 27 years but the quarterly number showed a big improvement. The third round of the PBoC’s targeted reserve requirement ratio cut went into effect yesterday.

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