MID MORNIG MARKETS 05-09-19

The ASX 200 is down 25 points in mid morning trade after another ppor night. Interest-rate sensitive sectors and gold best. Materials worst. Banks mixed. No ACCC “catch” for WES acq, FLT acq. Big RBA week  #ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Economic data – AIG Services Index, CommBank Australia Composite PMI, CommBank Australia Services PMI Final, ANZ Job Advertisements
  • Exdividend – Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW) 10.0c, WCM Global Growth (WQG) 2.0c
  • Japanese data – Jibun Bank Services PMI Final, Jibun Bank Composite PMI Final
  • Chinese data – Caixin Services PMI, Caixin Composite PMI

TONIGHT

  • European data – Markit Services PMI Final, Markit Composite PMI Final
  • UK – Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
  • US economic data – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

COMPANY NEWS

  • Monadelphous (MND) – new construction and maintenance work in the resources and energy sectors with a combined value of approximately $150. The contracts are with Origin and BHP Mitsubishi Alliance, South32 and Rio Tinto.
  • Oil Search (OSH) – PNG Minister for Petroleum, MrKerenga Kua, statement that the PNG Cabinet (National Executive Council) has agreed, in principle, to stand behind the Papua LNG Gas Agreement, which was signed by the PNG Government and the PRL 15 Joint Venture in April 2019.
  • APA – Galilee Moranbah Pipeline Update. Has been granted a Petroleum Survey Licence (PSL) by the QLd government.
  • Wesfarmers (WES) – ACC
  • Flight Centre (FLT) – Acquired full ownership of Les Voyages Laurier du Vallon, a North American premium leisure and corporate travel business. The acquisition’s terms are currently confidential and have not been disclosed.
  • Diggers and Dealers – Presntation from Newcrest (NCM), Saracen (SAR)

LAST WEEK

Global Markets Last Week – Big falls after trade dispute deterioration. US (-3.1%) and Europe (-3.2%) hard hit. Tech sector underperformed (NASDAQ -3.9%) and Europe banks (RBOS -11.0%, Lloyds -8.5%). US 10-year yield ↓ 22bp. Gold (+2.25%) safe haven. $A hanging around 62c

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Aussie markets last week – XJO -0.37% outperformed global peers. Defensive and high yield sectors best C Staples +0.3%, REITS +1.7%, Telcos +2.6%. Materials -2.5%, Disc -2.1% and Energy -1.8% worst. ABC -21.2% hits building sector. TLS 3.6% run continues, TCL best of Top20.

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THIS WEEK

  • RBA meeting
  • Domestic – ANZ job ads, trade data, housing finance, RBA SOMP
  • China – Caixin Services PMI, trade data and inflation
  • Japan – GDP
  • Europe – Services PMI,
  • UK – Serives PMI, GDP and industrial production
  • US – PPI

Earnings this week

  • Tuesday – Shopping Centres of Australia (SCP)
  • Wednesday – Transurban (TCL), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Suncorp (SUN)
  • Thursday – AMP, AGL Energy (AGL), Mirvac (MGR), Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

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OVERNIGHT

m10m11

SPI FUTURES -0

US EQUITIES – S&P500 -22 (-0.73%), Dow Jones -981 (-0.37%), NASDAQ -107 (-1.32%)

Main themes

  • Trade concerns continue to weigh, with China promising retaliatory measures.
  • IT a big drag.
  • Solid employment report.

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Big moves lower. STOXX600 -2.46%, UK FTSE -2.34%, German DAX -3.11%, French CAC -3.57%,

European banks weaker with RBOS (-6.54%), despite beating earnings estimates. Dividend of £1.7bn and 2Q profit of £1.3 billion ($1.57 billion) compared to £1bn forecast.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is a touch lower 98.10.
  • The Aussie dollar is little changed at US68.02c

BONDS – 2-yr: -1 bp to 1.71%, 3-yr: UNCH at 1.67%, 5-yr: -1 bp to 1.67%, 10-yr: -4 bps to 1.86%, 30-yr: -5 bps to 2.39%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures were up US$1.71 or 3.2% to US$55.66, partially recovering from the big 7.9% fall during Thursday’s session.
  • Gold futures were up 1% to US$1,450.90 an ounce.
  • Iron Ore – CommSec has iron ore down US$5.45 or 4.8% to US$108.45 a tonne.
  • LME metals – Large moves lower. Cu -2.88%, Ni -1.53%, Al -0.42%.

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – June Trade Balance -$55.20bn (consensus -$54.60bn; prior -$55.30bn); Factory Orders 0.6% (consensus 0.8%; prior -1.3%) and Final July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey 98.4 (consensus 98.6; prior 98.2)
  • Employment data – July Nonfarm Payrolls 164,000 (consensus 160,000; prior 193,000), July Nonfarm Private Payrolls 148,000 (consensus 167,000; prior 179,000), July Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%), July Unemployment Rate 3.7% (consensus 3.6%; prior 3.7%), July Average Workweek 34.3 (consensus 34.4; prior 34.4), The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, dropped to 0% from 7.2% in June. Average hourly earnings +0.3% (consensus +0.3%, previous +0.3% (revised from +0.2%)) to be +3.2%yoy (previous 3.1%).
  • Brexit – The pro-European Union Liberal Democrat party won the parliamentary seat of Brecon and Radnorshire, in Wales, from the governing Conservatives. The loss reduces PM Boris Johnson’s working majority in parliament to 1.
  • Hong Kong – Protesters have called for a general strike on Monday.
  • Japan/South Korea politics – South Korea will be removed from a Japanese list of countries that face minimum export restrictions on August 28. In response, South Korean officials announced that Japan will be removed from South Korea’s whitelist.
  • European data – June Retail Sales +1.1% (expected 0.2%; last -0.6%) to be 2.6%yoy (expected 1.3%; last 1.0%); UK July Construction PMI 45.3 (expected 46.0, prior 43.1). Italian June Industrial Production -0.2% (expected -0.3%; last 1.0%) to be -1.2%yoy (expected -2.1%; last -0.6%). June Retail Sales +1.9% (expected 0.4%; last -0.6%) to be +1.3%yoy (expected 0.2%; last -1.8%).
  • Australian economic data – Australia’s June Retail Sales +0.4% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.1%), to be +0.2%yoy (expected 0.3%; last -0.1%).

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