MID MORNING MARKETS 14-08-19

The ASX 200 is up 27 points in mid morning trade after US tries to save Xmas. Risk on! CSL adding to the XAO alone. CBA ex taking off 14. Gold worst and IT best. AOG takeover, PGH write-down. Wages data and lots of China data ahead #ausbiz

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Ex-dividend – Australian Masters Yield Fund No 4 (AYK) 88.0c, Australian Masters Yield Fund No 5 (AYZ) 89.0c, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) 231.0c, Navigator Global Investments (NGI) 13.4c, ResMed (RMD) 3.9c, Ryder Capital (RYD) 3.0c, Scentre (SCG) 11.3c, Suncorp Group (SUN) 44.0c
  • Earnings – Computershare (CPU), CSL, Dexus (DXS), ASX
  • Economic data – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, Wage Price Index
  • Japanese data – Machinery Orders
  • Chinese data – Fixed Asset Investment (YTD), Industrial Production, Retail Sales, New Yuan Loans, Outstanding Loan Growth

TONIGHT

  • UK data – Inflation Rate
  • European data – GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production
  • US data – Import Prices/ Export Prices

COMPANY NEWS

  • National Australia Bank (NAB) – 3Q trading update. Cash earnings up 1% on 3Q18 at $1365bn. CET110.4%. on 1H average, revenue was up 1% reflecting growth in SME lending and a slightly higher group margin; – Net interest margin increased primarily due to lower short-term wholesale funding costs; Expenses were flat given ongoing productivity savings from the transformation program, compensating for higher compliance and risk costs.
  • Caltex (CTX) – CEO, Julian Segal will retire and step down once a formal search and transition process has been completed.
  • Aveo (AOG) – Details of Brookfield takeover at $2.195
  • CSL – Reported NPAT up 17% to $1,919m, revenue up 11% at CC2, reflecting; Continued strong growth in immunoglobulin and albumin therapies; High patient demand for specialty products Haegarda & Kcentra; Successful evolution of the haemophilia therapies portfolio; Seqirus delivering on strategy, with strong profit growth. UPS +16% to $4.236. Final dividend of US$1.00 per share (approximately A$1.48); Total full year dividend increased to US$1.85 per share, up 8%; Converted to Australian currency, the total full year dividend is approximately A$2.68 per share, up 18%. FY20 NPAT expected to be $2,050-$2,110m (7-10% growth). This growth takes into account the one-off financial headwind of transitioning to a new model of direct distribution in China.
  • Pact Group (PGH) – Revenue up 10% to $1,834 million (pcp: $1,674 million); Statutory net loss after tax of $290 million (pcp: statutory net profit after tax of $74 million); Significant items after tax of $367 million expense (pcp: $20 million), including after-tax non-cash asset impairments of $327 million; EBITDA down 3% to $231 million (pcp: $237 million); NPAT down 18% to $77 million (pcp: $95 million); Earnings impacted by lags in recovering higher raw material and energy costs in the first half, and lower volumes in some sectors; Strong focus on efficiency and overhead cost reduction; Transformation of the Group’s packaging network progressed with two facilities closed during the period; Recent acquisitions performing in line with expectations; Crate pooling operations expanded following long-term contract win – services supporting fresh produce supply into ALDI commenced in August 2019; Long-term contract with a major retailer in the USA will expand reuse services in FY20; Strong operating cashflow and improved leverage in the second half; Balance sheet capacity improved and near-term refinancing risk reduced with the extension of the $380M syndicated debt facility and the establishment of a new subordinated loan facility; New CEO commenced and strategy review initiated
  • Orocobre (ORE) – COO Alex Losada has taken leave until his contract expires next February.

OVERNIGHT

m10m11

SPI FUTURES +48

US EQUITIES – S&P500 +43 (+1.48%), Dow Jones +373 (+1.44%), NASDAQ +153 (+1.95%)

Main themes

  • The US will delay some China tariffs until December 15 (including phones, computers and some clothing) and remove some item for the list completely due to Health, safety, national security and other factors. The tariffs were due to start on September 1.
  • Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Tuesday that US and Chinese trade officials spoke on the phone and agreed to talk again within two weeks.

EUROPEAN MARKETS – All higher. STOXX600 +0.54%, UK FTSE +0.33%, German DAX +0.60%, French CAC +0.99%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is stronger at 97.80.
  • The Aussie dollar is lower at US67.96.

BONDS – 2-yr: +9 bps to 1.67%, 3-yr: +9 bps to 1.60%, 5-yr: +9 bps to 1.57%, 10-yr: +4 bps to 1.68%, 30-yr: +1 bp to 2.14%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures were up 4% to US$57.10.
  • Gold futures fell 0.3% to US$1,512.60.
  • Iron Ore – CommSec has iron ore downUS$6.30 or 6.6% to US$88.50 a tonne.
  • LME metals – Stronger. Cu +1.76%, Ni +0.86%, Al +0.85%.

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – July CPI 0.3% (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.1%) and July Core CPI 0.3% (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%); July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 104.7 (prior 103.3)
  • Singapore – Q2 GDP -3.3% (expected -2.9%; last -3.4%) but +0.1% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last 0.1%). 2019 growth estimate cut to 0.0-1.0% from 1.5-2.5%.
  • Australian data – July NAB Business Confidence 4 (expected 3, previous 2) and July NAB Business Survey 2 (previous 3).
  • Italian politics – The Italian senate is expected to set the date for a no-confidence vote today. Lega would like to see the vote take place tomorrow while M5S and other parties prefer August 20.
  • European data – ZEW Economic Sentiment -43.6 (expected -21.7, previous -20.3); Germany’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment -44.1 (expected -27.8, previous -24.5) and Current Conditions -13.5 (expected -7.0, previous -1.1). July CPI +0.5% m/m (as expected, last 0.5%) to be +1.7%yoy (as expected, last 1.7%). UK June Average Earnings Index + Bonus +3.7%yoy (as expected, last 3.5%). July Claimant Count Change 28,000 (expected 32,000; last 31,400) and Unemployment Rate 3.9% (expected 3.8%, previous 3.8%).

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