MID MORNING MARKETS 20-09-19

The ASX200 is up 57 points in mid-morning trade after a quiet night in the US. Broad-based gains. All sectors +ve. Gold & IT best, Energy & Financials worst. PMV results, IFL wins APRA legal case. Quiet next week.

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COMPANY NEWS

  • IOOF (IFL) – Update on court proceedings. The Court held that IOOF’s APRA regulated entities and the five individuals did not contravene the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Act 1993 (Cth). The Court also declined to make the disqualification orders sought against the five individuals, and awarded costs in IOOF’s favour.
  • Premier Investments (PMV) – FY19 NPAT +27.7% to $177.6m. Retail sales +7.5% to $1.27bn (lfl sales +4.2%). Underlying EBIT +11.5% to $167.3m, FY dividend +12.9% to 70cps.
  • Sydney Airport (SYD) – Monthly traffic statistics

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OVERNIGHT

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SPI FUTURES +10

US EQUITIES – S&P500 +0 (+0.00%), Dow Jones -52 (-0.19%), NASDAQ +5 (+0.07%)

Main themes

  • Equities little changed on light volume
  • Microsoft (+1.84%) after announcing $40 billion share buyback program, dividend raise
  • Health Care outperformed, cyclical sectors underperformed
  • Economic data remained encouraging

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mixed. STOXX600 +0.61%, UK FTSE +0.58%, German DAX +0.55%, French CAC +0.68%

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is weaker at 98.34.
  • The Aussie is also weaker at US67.95.

BONDS – 2-yr: -1 bp to 1.74%, 3-yr: -1 bp to 1.68%, 5-yr: -1 bp to 1.65%, 10-yr: -1 bp to 1.77%, 30-yr: -2 bps to 2.21%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures closed up just 2c at US$58.12 a barrel. EIA stockpiles rose by 1.1mb compared to expectations for a drop of 2.5mb.
  • Gold futures fell 0.6% to US$1,506.20 an ounce. Spot gold rose 0.5% to US$1500.55 an ounce.
  • Iron Ore – CommSec has iron down US$4.10 or 4.3% to US$92.00/t
  • LME metals – Mixed. Cu -0.22%, Ni +0.52%, Al +0.39%.

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • Global Growth – The OECD lowered its 2019 global growth forecast to 2.9% (from 3.2%), representing a post-GFC low. 2020 forecast cut 40bps to 3.0%. 2019 US growth cut 40 bps to 2.4%, Japan growth increased 30 bps to 1.0%.
  • US-Japanese trade – Nikkei reported that Japan will gradually reduce tariffs on imports of US beef to 9% from 38.5% by fiscal 2033.
  • BOJ meeting – No changes to policy stance, keeping interest on excess reserves at -0.10%. Hinted at potential action at its October meeting (occurs a month after the sales tax increases to 10.0% from 8.0%)
  • BOE meeting – Left key rate and asset purchase program unchanged at 0.75% and GBP435bn. The policy statement noted that the bank rate would have to increase “to a limited and gradual extent” in the event of a smooth Brexit and an uptick in global growth.
  • UK data – August Retail Sales -0.2% (as expected, last 0.4%) to be +2.7%yoy (expected 2.9%; last 3.4%). Core Retail Sales -0.3% (expected -0.2%; last 0.4%) to be +2.2%yoy (expected 2.6%; last 3.1%).
  • US economic data – Initial claims +2,000 to 208,000 (consensus 213,000) while continuing claims -13,000 to 1.661 million; Existing home sales +1.3% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.49m (consensus 5.36m, previous 5.42m). Total sales were 2.6% higher than the same period a year ago and at their strongest pace since March 2018; Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index unchanged (consensus +0.1%, previous 0.4% downgraded from 0.5%); The Philadelphia Fed Survey 12.0 (consensus 8.0, previous 16.8). Current Account deficit $128.20bn (consensus -$135.00bn, previous -$136.20bn revised from -$130.40bn).
  • Domestic employment data – Employment Change 34,700 (expected 10,000; last 41,100), but Full Employment -15,500 (last 34,500). U/e rate 5.3% form 5.2% as expected. Participation Rate rose to 66.2% (expected 66.1%, last 66.1%).

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