MID MORNING MARKETS 03-10-19

The ASX200 is -158 points in late-morning trade and Sophie Ellis-Bextor is playing the soundtrack in my head. Gold the only safe place on the dance floor today. Masks great news from CWY with energy-from-waste project.

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Economic data – AiG performance of services September, Trade balance August

TONIGHT

  • European data – PPI August, Retail sales
  • UK data – Markit/CIPS services PMI September
  • US economic data – Markit services PMI September, Factory orders August, Durable goods orders August, ISM non-manufacturing September
  • Fed Speak – Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Vice Chair of Supervision Randal Quarles, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Dallas Fed President Robert Stephen Kaplan

COMPANY NEWS

  • Cleanaway (CWY) – Has announced plans to develop an energy from waste project in Western Sydney. The project will convert waste from households and local businesses into electricity for as many as 65,000 Western Sydney homes, targeting red bin waste that cannot be recycled. It would have the capacity to cut Western Sydney’s annual landfill volumes by 500,000 tonnes – almost a third of the red bin waste generated per year in the local area

OVERNIGHT

m10m11

SPI FUTURES -120

US EQUITIES – S&P500 -36 (-1.23%), Dow Jones -344 (-1.28%), NASDAQ -91 (-1.13%)

  • Main themes
  • Equity weakness continues over concerns about growth and valuations
  • Cyclical sectors underperform
  • Treasury yields lower, gold futures increase, oil prices weaker
  • The US plans to add a 10% tariff on EU aircraft and a 25% duty on agricultural and other products. Take effect from October 18.

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Heavily sold. STOXX600 -2.70%, UK FTSE -3.23%, German DAX -2.76%, French CAC -3.12%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is weaker at 99.02.
  • The Aussie is little changed at US67.07.

BONDS – 2-yr: -8 bps to 1.48%, 3-yr: -7 bps to 1.43%, 5-yr: -7 bps to 1.43%, 10-yr: -5 bps to 1.59%, 30-yr: -3 bps to 2.08%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures closed down 1.8% to US$52.64. EIA inventories rose 3.1mb (expected 1.6mb)
  • Gold – COMEX futures settled up 1.3% at US$1,507.90 an ounce. Spot gold rose 1.4% to U$1,499.41
  • Iron Ore – CommSec has iron unchanged $93.90/t.
  • LME metals – Mixed. Cu +0.14%, Ni +1.01%, Al -1.72%.

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US economic data – ADP Employment Change 135K (consensus 140K, last 157K revised from 195K). This follows yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing Index for September 47.8% (consensus 50.2%, previous 49.1%). September marks the second straight month the index has been below 50% and it is the lowest reading since June 2009. It is a bi-product of weakening business confidence that is stemming in part from the trade uncertainty
  • Tariffs – The World Trade Organization issued a ruling that would allow the US to impose tariffs on the EU over subsidies provided to Airbus. The US had lodged complaints, first in 2004, over what it called illegal subsidies for aircraft maker Airbus by several European governments.
  • Japanese data – September Household Confidence 35.6 (expected 38.2, previous 37.1).
  • Hong Kong – August Retail Sales -23.0%yoy (last -11.4%).
  • Brexit – British PM Boris Johnson is expected to speak with European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, and German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, later today. Mr. Johnson is expected to present a solution to the contentious Irish border backstop but there are already doubts about the plan being accepted by the EU.
  • German economy – The leading economic institutes lowered their forecast for German 2019 GDP growth to 0.5% from 0.8%, and the 2020 forecast to 1% from 1.8%.
  • UK data – September Construction PMI 43.3 (expected 45.0, previous 45.0)
  • OPEC – Ecuador, one of the smallest members, will leave OPEC from 1 January due to fiscal problems. Ecuador will be the second country to withdraw from OPEC in the last year after the departure of Qatar.

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