MID MORNING MARKETS 4-10-19

The ASX200 is up 10 points in late-morning trade and not all that much to get excited about really. US markets don’t know how to take the bad news. CSL upgraded by JPM, KMD post Rip Curl, MFG FUM. Retail sales ahead, US-China trade talk next week

m1m2m3TODAY

  • Economic data – Retails sales, HIA New Home Sales

TONIGHT

  • US Economic data – Non-farm payrolls (consensus 150K up from 130K), wages (consensus 0.3%, prev 0.4%) and employment data (consensus 3.7%, previous 3.7%), Trade balance
  • Fed Speak – Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-FOMC voter), Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter), Fed Governor Lael Brainard (FOMC voter), Fed Governor Randal Quarles (FOMC voter), Kansas City Fed President Esther George (FOMC voter),

NEXT WEEK

  • Focus on US-China trade talks resume October 10.
  • Economic data – NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence. ANZ Job ads, housing finance and RBA stability review
  • China – Caixin service and composite PMI
  • US – PPI, inflation and FOMC meeting minutes

COMPANY NEWS

  • Magellan Financial Group (MFG) – FUM. Net inflows were $462 million, which included net retail inflows of $175 million and net institutional inflows of $287 million. The Magellan High Conviction Trust has indicatively raised $862 million, which will be reflected in next month’s FUM announcement.

m1


OVERNIGHT

m10

SPI FUTURES +35

US EQUITIES – S&P500 +23 (+0.80%), Dow Jones +122 (+0.47%), NASDAQ +87 (+1.12%)

Main themes

  • Recovery from early weakness after weaker than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
  • Treasury yields continued to decline

EUROPEAN MARKETS – Mostly weaker. STOXX600 -0.02%, UK FTSE -0.63%, German DAX -2.76%, French CAC +0.30%.

CURRENCIES

  • The USD is weaker at 98.91.
  • The Aussie is little changed at US67.07.

BONDS – 2-yr: -10 bps to 1.38%, 3-yr: -10 bps to 1.33%, 5-yr: -9 bps to 1.34%, 10-yr: -7 bps to 1.53%, 30-yr: -9 bps to 2.03%

COMMODITIES

  • Oil – WTI futures closed down 19c to US$52.45.
  • Gold – Futures settled up 0.4% at US$1,513.30 an ounce. Spot gold rose 0.5% to U$1,507.43
  • Iron Ore – CommSec has iron unchanged $93.90/t.
  • LME metals – Mixed. Cu +0.14%, Ni +1.01%, Al -1.72%.

ECONOMIC DATA, NEWS & POLITICS

  • US Economic data – The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 52.6% (consensus 55.4%, previous 56.4%); It increases concerns that the manufacturing recession, and trade uncertainty, are having a broader effect on the consumer-oriented services sector. Initial claims +4,000 to 219,000 (consensus 215,000) and continuing claims -5,000 to 1,651,000; Factory Orders -0.1% (consensus 0.0%, previous +1.4%).
  • BOJ – Is expected to conduct its first bond buying operation of the month today. The BoJ announced last week that purchases of shorter-term JGBs will be reduced as the central bank aims to steepen Japan’s yield curve.
  • President Trump has called on Ukraine and China to investigate Joe Biden
  • Reserve Bank of India – Is expected to lower its repurchase rate tomorrow.
  • Brexit – British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is discussing his proposal for a modified Brexit deal in the House of Commons. The EC spokesman has already called attention to “problematic points” in the plan.
  • European data – August Retail Sales +0.3% (as expected, last -0.5%) to be +2.1%yoy (expected 1.9%; last 2.2%). August PPI -0.5% (expected -0.3%; last 0.1%) to be 0.8%yoy (expected -0.5%; last 0.1%). September Services PMI 51.6 (expected 52.0, last 53.5); German Services PMI 51.4 (expected 52.5, last 54.8); UK September Services PMI 49.5 (expected 50.3, last 50.6)

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